Perinatal mortality in Ukraine

Trends of perinatal mortality rates, 1985-2004, in the three most contaminated Ukrainian regions combined, i.e. Zhitomir oblast, Kiev oblast, Kiev City (study region), and in the remainder of Ukraine (control region).

To find out whether the trend in the study region differs from the trend in the control region, the ratio of perinatal mortality rates in the study region to the rates in the control region (odds ratios) is calculated. The odds ratios show a rise and fall in the 1990's relative to a gently decreasing temporal trend (see Figure below). A good fit to the data is obtained with a model which allows for an effect of the average strontium burden in pregnant women (solid line). The regression model allows for a curvilinear dose response relationship. The power of dose is determined from the data as 1.80 ± 0,77. The effect of the strontium term is highly significant (p<0.0001). 

From the difference between observed and expected rates, the overall effect in Kiev City, Kiev region and Zhitomir region is 1048 excess perinatal deaths until 2004.

The complete study can be downloaded here