Perinatal mortality in Germany and other countries - annual data Germany In 1987, there is a significant 4.9% increase of perinatal mortality relative to the trend of all other years (p=0.0088). The excess rate in 1987 is 0.36 per 1000 births that translates to 317 excess cases (95% CI: 67-578). The increase of perinatal mortality in 1987 is essentially driven by a 7.4% increase of early neonatal mortality rate (p=0.0035; 95% CI: 2.1% to 13.0%); the 2.9% increase of stillbirth rate is not significant (p=0.100). Figure 1: Perinatal mortality rates in Germany and long-term trend Other countries Like in Germany, perinatal mortality in Poland is significantly increased in 1987 (p=0.0074). The excess rate is 0.57 per 1000 births that translates to 354 excess cases (95% CI: 89-626). About 75% of the excess perinatal deaths in 1987 are early neonatal deaths. Figure 2: Perinatal mortality rates in Poland and logistic regression function A combined regression for Germany and Poland, with individual trend parameters but a common parameter for the relative increase in 1987, yields a highly significant 4.2% rise (p=0.0003). The deviations from the trend, in units of standard deviations (standardised residuals), are displayed in Figure 3. Figure 3: Deviations between observed and expected rates (standardised residuals) in Germany (black squares) and Poland (white squares). The broken lines show the range of 2 standard deviations (2σ-range). In England and Wales, no increase of perinatal mortality rates is observed in 1987 relative to the trend of the data 1981-1992 (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Perinatal mortality rates in England and Wales and logistic trend function Since the caesium soil contamination was higher in the eastern than in western Germany, and highest in Bavaria, the most contaminated German region, individual regressions of the data subsets for East Germany, West Germany and Bavaria were also conducted. The results for the excess perinatal mortality rates, the relative increases, the numbers of excess cases, and the one-sided p-values are given in the following table. The excess perinatal mortality rate in 1987 is greater in Poland than in Germany, greater in East than in West Germany, and greater in Bavaria than in West Germany. Excess perinatal mortality rates 1987 data set excess rate relative increase excess cases p-value* Poland 0.572 3.8% 354 0.0074 Germany 0.363 4.9% 317 0.0088    West Germany 0.247 3.5% 159 0.0733    East Germany 0.623 7.2% 141 0.0279    Bavaria 0.561 8.7% 67 0.0524 * one-sided t-test